ZAWYABusiness Monitor International Limited
We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain’s oil and gas sector:
BMI sees Bahraini oil production rising to as much as 90,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2021, in
line with efforts to boost output at the mature Bahrain field. We expect oil consumption to grow
to as much as 60,000b/d.
We expect both oil and gas reserves to decline in the period 2011-2021, pending new
discoveries. Oil reserves are expected to fall to 111mn bbl by 2021, with gas reserves falling to around 80bcm.
Gas production and consumption are likely to grow in tandem to just under 20bcm by 2021.
Risks to our forecasts hinge on final approval being granted for the expansion of the Sitra
refinery and a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal to feed growing gas
Bahrain’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our
assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC basket oil prices will fall from $101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$97.50/bbl in 2012, thus creating downside risk to Bahrain’s macroeconomic outlook.