5/12/2013

Persia, Turkey and Israel, Three players to carve up the arab world

Letter for the Corriere della Sera

Dear Editor,

Speaking about Middle East forecasts, I just doubt that Obama will take the bull by the horns, needless to remind his lack of empathy for the palestinians. So he is not going to compel the government of Israel to choose the path of peace.under such circumstances the Israeli rule will stay from the Mediterranean to the Jordan river. Equality cannot be granted to the Arabs, the theory or the dream of Israeli peaceniks and I think at one time Edward's Said idea ,to have equal citinzenship in one country.
So in this respect Israel is more and more destined to be an apartheid system, but its main problem is increasing Arab demography a situation that will upset the Jewishness of the Israeli state. People like Netanyahu, Lieberman or Bennett will do anything to avoid the only alternative for peace, meaning, land in exchange of peace, the famous two state solution with East Jerusalem as the capital and a vague formula of compensation for the refugees. And this is why in case of renewed negotiations it will again drag on and on without any result.

But things are drastically changing in the Middle East. From Iraq to Syria the trend of dislocation is going on. The Kurds of Irak have already their semi independence. The Sunnis of Iraq are on the verge of a new bloodshed with the Shiites, and Maliki is a new Saddam Hussein but a Shiite version. As for Syria the ethnic and sectarian cleansing is at its peak. The recent massacres of Sunnis in the Allawite coastland named the Sahel is the prelude of bigger massacres in the cities of Banias and later on Lattakie. Added to that is the reluctance of the so called friends of Syria to arm the opposition, that allows the regime of Bashar to displace the Syrian people mainly the majority meaning the Sunni, to displace them, inside Syria and outside, towards Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. The other minorities Christians and Armenians already fleeing to the western world. As for the druses the Allawite regime is using them as mercenaries like the druses of Israel to fight the Palestinians, in Syria the Sunnis.
Out of this nightmare scenario comes the conflict of interest or the future demarcation lines between Israel and the advancing Persian empire already present on the shores of the Mediterranean, through Hezbollah. But what I wanted to say is that the borders of Sykes Picot are crumbling and the Arab world is being totally crippled by sectarian and ethnic divisions. In such a transitional situation, there are three main powers concerned about the new boundaries of the Fertile Crescent: Persia, Turkey and Israel. The Persian will do anything to preserve their dominance over Irak, a fragmented Syria with a link from the Syrian Sahel to Lebanon, mainly Hezbollah strongholds.
The Turks are fully engaged in normalysing their relations with the Kurds. The Kurdish Turks rights of citizenship will be granted in the new constitution, Erdogan cannot but abide by the fact that he has to offer concessions in exchange of the withdrawal of the Kurdish Pkk fighters to northern Irak. Later on the Turks have to settle the Syrian Kurdish issue, already autonomous in their areas, bordering Turkish borders. As for Syria I just predict a long endless civil war, with the old French mandate scenario of four so called states, Aleppo, Damascus, the Druze canton and the Allawite or nussairi enclave backed by the Persian and the the Russians with their base of Tartous. Up till now the Russian-Iranian axis did its best to support Bashar's regime and will continue to do so even if Syria is partitioned, their main concern is to fight the jihadists or al Quaida, the common slogan adopted by every body for not arming the syrian people.
As for Israel, in this coming scenario, the best alternative to avoid peace and the two state solution is to drive the Palestinians out of the Israel of 1948, the old idea or concept of transfer to transjordan and enforce the settlements as a part of the Greater Israel. I might be pushing my imagination too far, but with a fragmented Irak and a partioned Syria, Jordan could be the alternative for the surplus of Palestinians in their ghettos in the West Bank or from inside the green line. By the way some news that I have heard are mentioning the enlargement of the Gaza Strip towards Sinai, a project that could be financed by Quatar, another possible destination to deport the Palestinians . How to achieve it? Maybe a bloody suspicious massacre of jews by hired terrorists that could trigger massive deportation. Bashar's massacres are beyond imagination and could make people forget about Deir Yassine.
I do not want to add more pessimism, but gone are the days of Andalousia where Jews and Moslems had a remarkable history of coexistence, offering the whole world an incomparable heritage in culture in architecture, in all fields another kind of inquisition is coming to the Arab world. The inquisition of intolerance, of illiteracy, of sectarianism and tribalism, the cycle predicted by Ibn Khaldoun. The inquisition of the never ending dispute, between Sunnis and Shiites, basically a political dispute about the succession of the prophet Mouhammad, but fully exploited by the lack and inability of Arab mind or Moslem mind to settle down this dispute ,and look for the future ,for development, for education, for settling an Arab common market, for enhancing the rule of law, away from the rule of medieval backward Islamic theocracy, based on unbelievable interpretations of the Coran.
The big challenge is how to modernize Islam. I personally do not have an answer, but I think it is possible through critical thinking that could challenge and destroy inherited obsolete dogmas. As for the future of Israel in this possible nightmare approach that I just described, the rulers of Israel might think that they are safe, maybe for some time, but even by deporting Palestinians they will just add more frustration and hate, that could trigger more instability. I do not see elite people and talented people from Israel able to live in «fortress Israel».